Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.869668 2.485190 3.325051 4.586055 6.488248e+00 9.349624e+00 14.185015
2024-12-22 1.316895 2.004267 3.124505 5.201867 9.261392e+00 1.762526e+01 38.855289
2024-12-29 0.995641 1.697414 3.032214 6.048249 1.372968e+01 3.643849e+01 136.596722
2025-01-05 0.765574 1.437935 2.903839 6.896797 2.027822e+01 8.092796e+01 693.244181
2025-01-12 0.558275 1.126605 2.501772 6.859902 2.547563e+01 1.560491e+02 4442.066639
2025-01-19 0.407606 0.869802 2.084979 6.456102 2.970763e+01 2.876119e+02 63088.363615
2025-01-26 0.325426 0.737082 1.922048 6.849293 4.127207e+01 7.994037e+02 NaN
2025-02-02 0.277950 0.670989 1.920606 8.066130 6.899644e+01 4.423604e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 0.244700 0.629092 1.980867 9.946015 1.311761e+02 9.452902e+04 NaN
2025-02-16 0.207698 0.559614 1.896280 11.011229 2.171349e+02 7.054694e+07 NaN
2025-02-23 0.170790 0.474770 1.691252 10.889658 2.955191e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.139650 0.396998 1.466689 10.206110 3.598233e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.121910 0.360894 1.425900 11.511189 7.134812e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.106436 0.326559 1.370935 12.740060 1.487351e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.094702 0.301423 1.348663 14.635229 4.014108e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.084285 0.277134 1.313557 16.515140 1.282688e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.072033 0.240547 1.172411 15.869855 2.360707e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.061042 0.205574 1.017430 14.352222 3.235764e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.054410 0.187073 0.961647 15.059145 1.241690e+05 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.050481 0.178963 0.973955 17.965678 5.207624e+06 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.047638 0.174691 1.013836 22.727226 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.043679 0.163635 0.989853 25.321451 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.038996 0.147462 0.908466 24.673981 NaN NaN NaN